The latest ACG + GF Data Q3 Market Pulse survey reveals that 62% of respondents expect M&A activity to increase slightly and 27% expect it to stay flat through year-end.
Valuation expectations are equally telling: 49% anticipate steady pricing over the next two quarters, and 32% expect slight increases—only a small minority foresee price declines.
Financing also factors in: 84% of respondents described the credit environment as neutral or somewhat favorable—not booming, but stable enough to support transactions in the near term.
Key drivers flagged by the survey include:
- 70% cited timing and market conditions as a primary deal-driver.
- 49% flagged capital-return pressure.
- 46% cited valuation levels themselves.
And while sectors like business services and technology dominate expected deal flow, more than half of respondents expect retail activity to decrease over the next two quarters.
What this Means
- For business owners, the survey results point to an environment where deal pipelines may strengthen toward year-end, supported by stable financing conditions and generally steady valuation expectations.
- For private-equity sponsors, the expectation of stable or rising activity and pricing suggests that opportunities remain accessible, though continued discipline around valuation and structure will be essential.
- For advisors and intermediaries, the data provides a clearer backdrop for guiding clients on timing, positioning and transaction readiness, particularly as market sentiment trends toward stability rather than contraction.
The middle-market M&A engine isn’t accelerating fast, but neither is it stalling. These survey findings point to a phase of measured stability heading into year-end—an opportunity set for those who are prepared.