At GF Data, we uncover and highlight transaction trends in the middle market so deal-makers can make informed decisions. In H1 2025, our data reveals a nuanced story: while deal volume softened, valuation multiples held steady—and the outlook for the second half of the year offers reason for cautious optimism.
Key Takeaways
- In the first half of 2025, GF Data tracked 142 private-equity-backed deals in the $10 million to $500 million total enterprise value (TEV) range, a decline of ~28–30 % compared to H1 2024.
- Despite lighter deal flow, average TEV/EBITDA multiples remained roughly 7.2× trailing-12-month (TTM) EBITDA through H1 2025—around the same level as 2023 and 2024.
- “High-performer” companies (defined as >10% revenue growth and >10% EBITDA margin) saw their premium narrow to approximately 5% in H1 2025, down from higher levels in prior years.
- Leverage for platform buy-outs held steady: total debt to EBITDA averaged about 3.3× TTM EBITDA from 2023 into H1 2025.
- Looking beyond volume and multiples, transaction structure matters: add-on deals increased to around 40% of buy-outs through H1 2025 (up from ~30% historically), which helps explain part of the pricing dynamic.
What This Means
- For business owners planning a sale or recapitalization: Even though volume is lower, stable multiples signal that the market remains active and price discipline is intact.
- For private-equity sponsors: Reduced deal flow heightens the value of proprietary sourcing and add-on strategy—where the data shows structural advantages.
- For advisors/intermediaries: Buyers remain selective; quality still matters but the premium for “top performers” is compressing. Preparation and execution speed are key differentiators.
Why We’re Watching the Back Half of 2025
The mid-year webinar and report suggest that while H1 didn’t live up to expectations, there are signs that the market may pivot: improved lender comfort, rate reductions, and buyer appetite for scaled, recurring-revenue assets.
Want to dive deeper?
- Read the full webinar recap: “Grading M&A on a Curve—ACG’s Mid-Year Market Update”
- Read the reporter-preview of our H1 2025 data: “GF Data Report: Valuations Holding Firm, Despite Lighter Deal Flow in H1 2025”